Tit for Tat: Iran v Israel
There are a lot of ‘stories’ flying around regarding israel’s attack on Iran a few days ago. This article examines the chain of events and attempts to cut through the noise and propaganda to reveal what ‘truth’ is out there today.
Israel strikes Iranian Embassy
April 1st, 2024
While there has been a bit of a back and forth between these countries for a long time, the most recent escalation was triggered by Israel violating (even more) international law by striking an Iranian Embassy and killing several personnel including some ‘top generals’. Israel, a nation many foolish Americans claim is our ‘top ally’, did not warn us in advance of this strike despite its high potential for escalating us into a regional war[1]. I want to stress that embassies are OFTEN used to house military personnel and spies. Their presence does not make the location a ‘valid target’.
A reminder
I do not believe Israeli officials think they can ‘win’ an outright war with Iran. I review Iran’s military capabilities in A Wider War: Iran, a key component of the balance of power is covered in A wider War: Hezbollah. I believe the escalations are designed to lure the US into fighting another war on israel’s behalf.
Iran Strikes Israel
April 13, 2024
Iran fired a total of ~300 drones and Ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran gave 3 days advance notice that an attack would happen [2]. The intercept reported that “the US, UK, France and Jordan all shot down the majority of Iranian drones and missiles”[3]. Most western media is touting this as a resounding victory but this is the first time in decades a nation state has directly attacked Israel. It is important to note that despite advanced warning and the coordinated efforts of at least 5 nations missiles and/or drones still hit their targets in israel including 2 bases [4].
Israel’s Attack on Iran
April 19, 2024
In short, reports of an attack on Iran seem to have been exaggerated. While an attack did occur it was either very small/unsuccessful OR Iran is portraying it as such in order to deescalate. The West is claiming it was a successful missile strike.
Initial reports made it seem that a wider war was inevitable. I heard that nuclear sites were hit, that Iran will strike Israeli nuclear targets and all manner of variations. The hyperbole extended all the way to a ‘failed nuclear EMP attack by israel’ (a claim I think is absurd on MANY levels). The Iranian story was initially that a weak, failed mini-drone attack occurred.
More recent reports are stating that Israel ‘fired a missile from a warplane’ and that the plane didn’t enter Jordanian airspace [5]. At first glance, I thought this extraordinarily unlikely, if not impossible. The implied flight path to the edge of Iraq would be longer than the range of an F-35 which means it would have to refuel. Additionally, the missile launch from the F-35 would have to have traveled at least ~250 miles before hitting its target.
Potential Weapons used
Luckily, I get to learn while researching these articles. We (and thus probably israel) have long range Air-to-ground (ATG) missiles that are integrated with F-35. The AGM-158 JASSM has variants with effective ranges of 200 , 500 and 1000 miles. The JASSM is also considered a ‘stealthy’ missile [6]. This video goes more in depth on the weapon. All this to say it is possible that israel did in fact strike Iran with a missile (of this or similar type). BBC & others are pointing to satellite imagery to ‘back up’ this claim [7]. Again, this isn’t to say that israel is being truthful (that is probably the hardest thing to sell given their history of lies), this is just to say it is POSSIBLE.
The initial evidence that sources pointed to seemed a bit of a stretch to me but more recent images are clearer. It should be noted, the width of the area that was ‘targeted’ housing the radar, is about 24 feet wide (7.5 meters). The crater of a tomahawk (a weapon of similar size to the AGM-158) is ~20 feet [8]. I would assume, had a 1,000 lb bomb hit this area we would see more pronounced damage and even a bit of a debris field. For comparison, I added some before & after photos of 2017 tomahawk strikes in Syria. (more info after the photos)
CNN showing impacts of 2017 Tomahawk strikes in Syria. [9]
Now reports are stating that an Israeli ‘rampage’ missile (appropriate name for a weapons used by the occupation forces). While the reported warhead size of 220 pounds seems to explain the limited visible damage, the stated range for this weapon is a mere 90 miles, either putting a jet in Iran for the launch or a different weapon being used ) [11]. Note that I had to use the ‘wayback machine’ to find this article, it has been removed sometime after Jan 14 2024.
Other reports are pointing towards a ‘blue sparrow’ missile which is often used to test israeli air defenses [12]. That said, I see nothing about these being ‘stealthy’ (they are literally used as targets) and I can’t find their potential warhead size. Another possibility is ROCKS missile system which is supposedly similar to the sparrow system. Details for this system are hard to find.
War is a Racket
I hope most of you have read my article War is STILL a Racket (if not read it!). I actually got to the end of this article before it set in that US officials are leaking ‘it was a missile strike’. So while Iran and EVEN ISRAEL are seemingly willing to ‘back down’, there is at least one American with clearance leaking info that could have (luckily seems to not have) triggered a reaction from Iran and a wider war. I hope that serves as a warning just how committed to the racket some of our ‘leaders’ can be.
Conclusion
I believe this exchange was a victory for Iran for one main reason, they showed they can directly target and hit Israel (without ‘leaving home’). This, I believe, will establish something Israel has not faced in decades, deterrence. Now, before striking Iranian targets, a calculation must be made regarding Iran’s response. It should be noted that both sides likely gathered useful intelligence from this exchange. I assume Iran learned more merely because our intelligence apparatus is robust and likely knew a lot already.
Despite Iran establishing deterrence, it does seem to have been hit by something as seen in the more recent photo above. It appears to me that it would need to have been a smaller payload than the AGM-158 (1,000 lbs). I doubt it was a Rampage due to the range, that leaves us with the ROCKS or something else. Iran is sticking to the story of a ‘child toy’ drone attack ‘not linked to israel’ [13] .
I encourage us all to take ANY information with a healthy dose of doubt. Israel’s lies have been laughably exposed since their genocidal campaign started. While Iran is on the right side of the Palestine issue , that does not make them a beacon of truth. Regardless of what actually occurred, it seems that Iran is (at least for now) willing to de-escalate. Russian President Vladimir Putin advised against escalation, I believe in order to keep Iranian drones flowing into their conflict, not being used elsewhere. WW3 is (thankfully) in a holding pattern for a little bit longer.
One last note. The headlines seem to have been dominated by this tit-for-tat exchange between Iran and Israel. The unfortunate consequence is that fewer people and news agencies seem to be covering the continuing genocide in Gaza. People there are still being starved, shot and bombed to death. Let us hope and push for that to end now.
Great report, thank you. I agree with your conclusion that the Iranians, for the first time, have established a deterrence with Israel that at least comes close to Israel's deterrence with Iran, if that makes sense. Now, Israel knows it can't strike at Iran with impunity.
It also knows the US won't necessarily back it up no matter what it does. Israel wanted a war between the US and Iran. It didn't get one, so in that sense this little exchange was also a win for Iran.