The Trump Doctrine

The US empire is facing multiple challenges with the evidence piling up to near catastrophic levels in the past few years. There is a saying amongst my fellow Marines, “we don’t retreat we attack in a different direction” that I think is applicable to what we are seeing from the Trump administration . A myriad of announcements, provocations & Executive Orders have shown Trumps focus on the Western Hemisphere as he also (seemingly) works to reduce our role on the global stage.

The End of Global Hegemony

First, I want to note that our empire, as it exists today, harms the American people. I provide an overview of the many challenges the US is facing in America’s Waning Power. Recently, several events have stood out as particularly damaging to American power & influence.

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Diplomatic & Strategic Failures

Our chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, while the right move, was embarrassingly executed, especially since we had been there for so long. It gave the impression of us quite literally running from the country (after we spent trillions of dollars on the war & sacrificed thousands of American lives). On the tail of our defeat in Afghanistan , decades of provocations & diplomatic failures (intentional or not) culminated in the Russian invasion of Ukraine (I recommend Scott Horton’s “Provoked” to understand this more fully — I’m still reading it). As that was ongoing, Hamas carried out “Al Aqsa Flood” on 10/7 and we had another leech sucking our resources nation demanding support for their war. Our blank check support for Israel’s genocide is an ongoing failure that continues to destroy our reputation as I detailed in several of my previous articles.

Economic Warfare

The misuse of our economic weapons by the Biden administration were massive. We exposed the weakness of our primary ‘first strike’ weapon, sanctions. In America’s Waning Power, I describe how even our own allies circumvented the sanctions on Russia. Further exacerbating our weakness, we removed Russia from SWIFT and seized their reserves. This sent a strong signal that the dollar is only good as a reserve ‘if you behave’. In previous years there was no viable alternative, today we have Bitcoin. I describe how Bitcoin is a real, viable alternative in ‘Choose Bitcoin’. A key point to remember, Russia, China, the BRICS et al who have largely been victimized by the dollar do not need THEIR currency to be the ‘reserve currency’ they just need the dollar NOT to be. Bitcoin offers a neutral solution.

Supply Chain

With ‘only’ the Ukraine war to support our munition stockpiles were being depleted and the weakness in our manufacturing was being exposed. When we added in our blind support of Israel’s genocide, the tax on our system became extreme. America’s Waning Power provides an initial look, while A Wider War: Supply Chain & restraint revisits the issue (in October of 2024). For context, the US makes ~360,000 155 rounds a year, the rest of NATO makes ~840,000, Russia makes ~3 million a year . The shortage imposed on Ukraine results in a higher casualty rate. Israel operations are massively demanding & they were using munitions manufactured in 1953 in order to keep up the pressure. (all of the sources and more details are available here).

Capabilities & Vulnerabilities

As I argue in America’s Waning Power & American Victory, our large expensive systems are increasingly vulnerable and incapable of carrying out our mission of ‘force projection’. Our carrier groups sat off the coast of Yemen, a nation without a navy and came out of it exhausted and experiencing the “most intense combat since WW2” [1]. Yemen, one of the poorest nations in the world not only stood up to our Navy, they did so while launching domestically produced hypersonic Palestine 2 missiles into Tel-Aviv [2].

Russia, after being further provoked by American backed strikes, displayed its capabilities with the Oreshnik missile strikes[3]. Shortly after the strike, analysts acknowledged they could also carry nuclear payloads[4]. We have saw there & in israel the difficulties ‘our’ systems have in defeating hypersonic missiles. While we have yet to see such a weapon aimed at a carrier, we should not think they are the invulnerable fortresses they once were.

All of these wars occur as China sits on the sideline & watches us stumble from catastrophic blunder to catastrophic blunder. As an X user appropriately noted (I think quoting Napoleon?), “Don’t interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake” .

Withdrawal

A (slightly) modified Monroe Doctrine Political Cartoon

Palestine & the Middle East

“The Future of Palestine” covers Trump’s “Gaza Plan” in more detail, but I will summarize here. Trump’s plan for Gaza is so wrought with errors & so contradictory to everything else I will lay out here that I am still of the mind that, despite his ties to Israel, this ‘plan’ is simply him “negotiating” with regional actors. I view this as him trying to dig israel out of the hole it made for itself.

As I lay out in The Future of Palestine, israel & the IDF lost in Gaza. We see further confirmation as Hamas citing Israeli violations of the ceasefire announced delaying further prisoner releases[5]. Later, in addition to threats of more violence, Israel allowed in more aid to shore up their side of the agreement and the ceasefire continued on as planned [6].

Note: I cover israel more at the end of this article too

The king of Jordan continues to grovel to Trump, yet the survivability of the state with another influx of refugees is doubtful [7]. Egypt has held a firmer stance against any ethnic cleansing, refusing to meet with Trump in regards to this plan [8]. As I believe Trump hoped for, they are planning to submit their own vision for Gaza reconstruction [9]. While the Saudi prince has long stated that normalization can only occur with a Palestinian state[10], the Abraham accords put that commitment to the test. October 7th and the subsequent genocide thrust Palestine back into the center of policy in the region. Trump’s plan received swift rejection from the Saudis. Israel subsequently “jokingly” proposed Saudi Arabia giving up land in support of the ethnic cleansing plan. The Saudis responded with “scathing state media campaign” where they questioned the sanity & mental state of Netanyahu amongst other criticisms[11].

Iran has been getting mixed signals from Trump. Trump mentioned his desire for “Iran to be a great country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon”[12] . Iran stated its willingness to negotiate but not under ‘maximum pressure’[13]. Meanwhile, Israel is continuing to try to push us into war with Iran on their behalf by getting Trump to back strikes against Iran [14]. Hopefully sanity prevails, Iran is a much more formidable enemy than those we have recently lost wars to.

Russia, Europe & NATO

The map below matches almost identically to the one that I used in America’s Waning Power to show that Russia had achieved its goals & Ukraine was not going to ‘win it back’. I, and others, have stated that peace should have been negotiated after the first Russian push was stalled/repelled or at the very start of the doomed ‘counteroffensive’ by Ukraine. The strategic position of Ukraine is going to continue to dwindle the longer this goes on (see above). While Zelensky asserts that they will “never recognize occupied territories as Russian”, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth acknowledges that it is “unrealistic” to seek the pre-2014 borders[15]. Trump’s plan seems to acknowledge some aspects needed for peace. Below are some things of note from his talk on Ukraine & Russia [16]:

1. Ukraine cannot join NATO

2. acknowledges the toll & cost on Ukraine but asserts that the US will be repaid for its ‘loans’ that supported the war

3. Ukraine is ‘unlikely’ to reclaim its land, but “some of it will come back”

4. wants people to stop being killed

This, among other things, is causing growing divide between America & our European allies. Poland is understandably VERY supportive of Ukraine, France asserted that Ukraine should remain on the ‘path’ of joining NATO & the UK defense minister asserted that they will ‘step up for Ukraine’ [17]. As Trump stated in a briefing, there is an ocean between us & Europe. What is vital for Europe, is not as vital for us & the contributions to NATO do not reflect that reality (I make a case for abandoning NATO entirely here).

While many are deriding Trump’s mineral deal with Zelensky [18], it does at the very least give the US a ‘vested interest’ in maintaining peace as war would cause disruptions in any industrial production there (whether this is ‘good’ is debatable). It seems, at least on this front, Trump is leaning more on ‘soft power’ hopes than military power.

On 2/28 as I was doing a final edit of this article, Zelensky, Trump & Vance met in the oval office and the meeting went as poor as it could for Zelensky. He came off as arrogant, unappreciative & combative towards the President & Vice President. Trump followed up the meeting with a post on social media (below), it appears that the support that Trump had until now promised to continue is off the table. Following this very public spat various European leaders have already voiced support for Zelensky, again emphasizing the ocean sized gap in American & European interests.

Asia

For those unfamiliar, Taiwan is a large point of contention in the US-China relationship. Our reliance on Taiwan is a real risk to our defense capabilities [19], 44.2% of our ‘logic chips’ and 24.4% of our ‘memory’ chips come from Taiwan [20]. While Trump isn’t the first to notice this vulnerability, he may be the most aggressive about it threatening tariffs as high as 100% on Taiwanese chips [21]. Taiwan in response set up a hotline to help companies navigate tariffs & companies like TSMC have begun production in the US [21]. It is important to note that tariffs are a tax whose cost (dependent on demand) are split between the consumer & the producer. While generally opposed to ANY tax, domestic production of chips is a vital strategic interest and if it moves us out of an adversarial position with China could reduce defense costs significantly.

Military Reduction

Trump mentioned that “when things straighten out”, he wants to have a meeting on “slowing down, stopping & reducing nuclear weapons in particular. And also, on not having to spend the kind of money we are all spending on weapons, military weapons generally”[22]. Trump mentioned working to cut the military budget in half in agreement with Russia & China. He also pointed out the world destroying capabilities we already have via our nuclear weapons[23]. While some may be dismissive, this was apparently one of the things discussed directly with Putin. Putin later stated “I think it’s a good idea. The US would cut by 50 percent and we would cut by 50 percent, and then China would join if it wanted”. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated China’s “limited defense spending is completely out of the need of safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests, and the need of maintaining world peace”[24]. It should be noted that the US budget dwarfs both China & Russia combined. It is important to note the difference in military activities of each nation, our military projects force around the world, a reduction in budget (especially a 50% reduction) would necessitate a massive reduction in our interventions.

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USAID

I have plenty to quarrel with on Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric, but domestically I am enjoying the dismantling of this & other shadowy agencies. I highly recommend listening to Joe Rogan’s recent interview with Mike Benz to get an idea of what USAID really is. The Libertarian Institute also has an interview between Daniel McAdams & Tommy Salmons [25] where they detail the various aspects of how USAID facilitates regime change. In short, USAID is/was a method of media control & a “revolution” generating apparatus aligned closely with what we typically think of the CIA doing. This tool of the ‘deep state’, routinely pushes or pulls us into the countless wars and ‘not wars’ that cost our lives, liberty & property.

While I am happy to see the ‘legacy system’ dismantled, I believe it would be naïve to think they are leaving themselves without some similar weapons. The ongoing genocide in Gaza has shown just how willing big tech is to help in any conflict (as long as they can profit). My concern is that this is just a shift from the belief we need ‘target country’ newspapers pushing propaganda to believing it is more cost effective to use social media, including its bots & algorithm manipulations, to create the same result. After all, I don’t think it is the older generation reading the Sunday paper who are leading revolts.

Attack in a Different Direction

South America

Trump’s administration has recently labeled various drug cartels ‘terrorist organizations’[26]. This designation opens the door for more direct action & legal prosecution of a variety of entities. Reuters reported that many companies are vulnerable to prosecution via the need to pay ‘protection’ payments to the (now) terrorist entities [27]. In addition to legal repercussions, this opens the door for increased direct involvement by the DOD, from intelligence gathering to, potentially, direct action like we see against the other (mostly Middle East based) ‘terrorist’ organizations [28].

Panama is also in Trump’s sight, he stated “China is running the Panama Canal that was not given to China, that was given to Panama foolishly, but they violated the agreement, and we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen,” [29]. The President of Panama initially balked at the statements [30] but has since pulled out of China’s “belt & road” initiative and committed to repatriate illegal immigrants deported from the US (at the US’ expense) [29]. For context, the canal is of strategic importance to the United States, 40% of our container traffic passes through it[31] and our naval vessels use it on occasion with about 40 trips annually[32] (though not generally ‘on mission’)[33]. It is worth noting the ‘mishandling’ of the relationship that is depicted in the CSIS article[31] and to note that this rhetoric may be just ‘resetting expectations’ between the two countries.

Trump has been taking action to force Venezuela to repatriate illegal migrants[34] and recently revoked Chevron’s license to export their oil, citing a lack of ‘democratic conditions’ & ‘not moving fast enough’ to repatriate the illegal migrants[35]. In El Salvador, a deal was reached to send illegal immigrants from the US to their prisons [36].

Greenland & Canada

“The island is loaded with critical minerals, including rare earth minerals, lithium, graphite, copper, nickel, zinc, and other materials used in green technologies. Some estimates suggest that Greenland has six million tons of graphite, 106 kilotons of copper, and 235 kilotons of lithium. It holds 25 of the 34 minerals in the European Union’s official list of critical raw materials, all of which exist along its rocky coastline, generally accessible for mining operations.” [37]

When we look at the negotiations in Ukraine, the mineral aspect supports the idea that the US is looking to Greenland at least in part due to its mineral wealth. While Trump negotiated peace with Russia, he negotiated minerals with Ukraine[38], this subsequently led to an offer from Russia as well [39]. In relation to Greenland’s minerals, I view it as a bit of ‘keep away’ with China. Just as our languishing support of Panama opened the door for China to step in, failure to ‘seize control’ of Greenland’s resource development might let it slip away to China.

From a military standpoint, Greenland has a key role in our missile & submarine defense[40]. We currently have bases & relatively ‘easy’ access to the country via Denmark & NATO, but there is the potential for Greenland’s independence that could impact that. While the leadership in Greenland signaled a willingness for increased cooperation with the US, Trump remained adamant that the ‘US would get it’[41]. At one point Trump refused to rule out using the military to secure Greenland, leading NATO allies to discuss troops in Greenland [42].

I think a lot of the talk from Trump & our NATO ‘allies’ is hyperbolic. I believe that Trump is signaling that Greenland is within OUR sphere of influence and the ‘independent state’ that may arise should be aligned with us & our plans, not Europe’s. A recurring theme to note is the line this draws between ‘our interests’ and Europe’s.

Trump’s Canada rhetoric seems to be just that, mere posturing in order to assert ‘dominance’ over the region. Canadians are unlikely to favor giving up their (little) sovereignty to join the US, even while facing higher tariffs. If they did ‘accept statehood’ they would be the largest state and likely lean more left that the Republican party, throwing off electoral dynamics for the foreseeable future [43]. I again see this as a focus on wielding power ‘close to home’ as opposed to far abroad.

The Israel Exception

When looking at everything else that Trump is doing & saying, our relationship with israel (as it long has) stands apart. Trump continues to flood weapons into israel [44] , promising ~a year’s worth of US bomb production without review by congress. This has seemingly emboldened the genocidal leader of israel, who has again openly stated his intent to commit war crimes. With the exception of israel, the ‘Trump doctrine’ seems to prioritize US interests.

When JD Vance was nominated, I pointed out that he wanted to end support for Ukraine to better support israel. In terms of material military support, this still makes sense, but the challenges israel faces are extending beyond the amount of bombs they can drop. When Trump won, I pointed out that he has a chance to present a real two state solution as an israel first’ message. Before you bring up his ‘Gaza plan’, read The Future of Palestine.

Perhaps Trump believes he can largely withdraw from the world stage (following all the points I lay out here), while maintaining the last vestige of our far reaching empire in israel. I believe that this effort would fail, though perhaps it would give the zionist project a few more years of the ‘status quo’. The zionist entity does not only rely on our bombs & weapons, it relies on us bribing (or threatening) other nations to comply and (using tools like USAID) to regime change those that do not. I do not think that we can abandon the empire ‘except for’ the most toxic, parasitic appendage of said empire.

Conclusion

I stated before that our status as the global hegemon is ending, we have two choices. To let our empire go and minimize damage or, to fight for it and risk it collapsing inwardly upon our nation. Trump, or any leader really, would not present this as a withdrawal or a retreat, instead it is sold to us & the world as a ‘sign of strength’. We are ‘asserting dominance’ across the Western Hemisphere, the region that was ‘established’ as ‘exclusively our sphere’ since the Monroe Doctrine.

Trump’s rhetoric, regardless of his intent, seems to lead us down a path of a reduced ‘active’ role on the global stage. His repeated statements isolate Europe’s interests from American interests & shake the very foundations of NATO. His recent fallout with Zelensky put a very strong emphasis on this fact. While the ‘Israel exception’ appears largely intact, many of his actions are straining the ‘supporting relationships’ in the region. I also believe it will be increasingly difficult to hide the obvious contradictions between our policies on Ukraine & israel. Finally, if Trump’s military spending reduction were to be implemented to ANY degree, many of our relationships, both friendly & adversarial , would be dramatically changed.

Based on the information we have today, the recurring theme is a focus on ‘our interests’ and not that of our ‘allies’. It is hard to say definitively what the ‘real’ goals are and what will come of them, but I see many signals of us embracing the reality of a multi-polar world. While there would be challenges, I think it will result in a healthier America, one which can “Observe good faith and justice towards all nations; cultivate peace and harmony with all”.

Harmony, liberal intercourse with all nations, are recommended by policy, humanity, and interest. But even our commercial policy should hold an equal and impartial hand: neither seeking nor granting exclusive favors or preferences; consulting the natural course of things; diffusing and diversifying by gentle means the streams of commerce but forcing nothing; establishing with powers so disposed—in order to give to trade a stable course, to define the rights of our merchants, and to enable the government to support them—conventional rules of intercourse, the best that present circumstances and mutual opinion will permit, but temporary, and liable to be from time to time abandoned or varied, as experience and circumstances shall dictate; constantly keeping in view, that it is folly in one nation to look for disinterested favors from another—that it must pay with a portion of its independence for whatever it may accept under that character—that by such acceptance it may place itself in the condition of having given equivalents for nominal favors and yet of being reproached with ingratitude for not giving more. There can be no greater error than to expect or calculate upon real favors from nation to nation. It is an illusion which experience must cure, which a just pride ought to discard. George Washington’s Farewell Address

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Resources

1. https://archive.ph/YmXS8

2. https://armyrecognition.com/military-products/army/missiles/hypersonic-missiles/palestine-2-hypersonic-missile

3. In-depth analysis of Russia's Oreshnik hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine

4. https://www.newsweek.com/does-putins-new-oreshnik-missile-transform-rules-nuclear-warfare-1999910

5. https://www.npr.org/2025/02/10/nx-s1-5292246/hamas-suspends-release-of-israeli-hostages

6. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/more-aid-enters-gaza-369-palestinians-set-to-be-released

7. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/jordan-ready-war-israel-if-palestinians-expelled-into-its-territory

8. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-president-sisi-not-attend-any-white-house-talks-if-gaza-displacement-2025-02-12/

9. https://abcnews.go.com/International/egypt-offer-trump-gaza-reconstruction-plan-without-palestinian-displacement/story?id=118725644

10. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2589054/saudi-arabia

11. https://www.ft.com/content/be852fec-d1df-4131-9e3f-23b1a0897f5b

12. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5127696-donald-trump-nuclear-peace-deal-iran/

13. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/8/iran-ready-to-negotiate-with-us-but-not-under-trumps-maximum-pressure

14. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sees-opening-for-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-sites-u-s-intelligence-warned-76a7fa24

15. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crlkypydyn6o

16. Youtube- Trump on Ukraine Territory

17. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-stun-europe-peace-plan-ukraine-nato/

18. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn7vg0nvzkko

19. https://www.csis.org/analysis/semiconductors-and-national-defense-what-are-stakes

20. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/us_exposure_to_the_taiwanese_semiconductor_industry_11-21-2023_508.pdf

21. https://archive.ph/IMu9n

22. Youtube- Trump spending reductions

23. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/14/trump-floats-summit-with-xi-putin-to-discuss-halving-of-military-budgets

24. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/feb/27/china-balks-donald-trumps-call-defense-cuts/

25. https://libertarianinstitute.org/blog/usaid-w-daniel-mcadams/

26. https://www.state.gov/terrorist-designations-of-international-cartels/

27. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-terrorist-label-cartels-raises-prosecution-risks-companies-2025-02-26/

28. https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/trumps-next-fight-with-mexico-designating-drug-cartels-as-terrorists-a46aeb4c

29. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/02/americas/panama-china-belt-and-road-initiative-rubio-visits-intl-latam/index.html

30. https://apnews.com/article/trump-panama-canal-turning-point-unity-97cba0d41f043dd9f156dc8355ee3f44

31. https://www.csis.org/analysis/panama-zoned-out-strategic-opportunity

32. https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2025-02-06/panama-canal-trump-navy-rubio-16740042.html

33. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/02/07/navy-stays-silent-panama-canal-use-negotiations-fees-stall.html

34. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjw4yejwlpeo

35. https://www.npr.org/2025/02/27/nx-s1-5311377/venezuela-oil-trump-chevron

36. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/americas/el-salvador-migrant-deal-marco-rubio-intl-hnk/index.html

37. https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/trump-greenland-resources-musk/

38. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/26/europe/ukraine-us-zelensky-trump-rare-earth-security-intl/index.html

39. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russia-offered-us-deal-minerals-ukranian-territory-seized-rcna193700

40. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/us-greenland/

41. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crkezj07rzro

42. https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-countries-discuss-sending-troops-121254572.html

43. https://apnews.com/article/how-canada-could-become-us-state-42360e10ded96c0046fd11eaaf55ab88

44. https://www.wpri.com/news/politics/ap-politics/ap-trump-administration-approves-major-nearly-3-billion-arms-sale-to-israel/