The Future of Palestine
How to achieve lasting peace
What the future holds for Palestinians is uncertain, while Trump has secured a ‘ceasefire’, true peace is still elusive. His recent announcement of ‘US ownership’ of Gaza has created an uproar from world leaders & people across the political spectrum on the internet.
Victory in Gaza
Leading up to October 7th, the Abraham Accords had essentially written out the Palestinian people. Hamas’ attack on 10/7 centered the region back on the Palestinian cause, ensuring that the world knew they would not simply fade away. Israel responded with brutality & carried out a genocide. At the human level, it is up to the Palestinian people to determine if the cost was ‘worth it’. It is up to them collectively to decide if it is a ‘victory’. While many balk at the sheer human cost, remember the call of America’s founders, Give Me Liberty or give me Death.
Destruction & Death
The UN estimates that the zionists damaged or destroyed an estimated 69% of the structures in Gaza [0] and up to 92% of all housing units[1] . Based on the lancet up to 64,260 people have been directly killed [2] & up to 960,000 may ultimately die as a result [3]. I cover these numbers & other issues in Gaza Ceasefire. Donald Trump, when asked how many ‘have to go’ replied “All of them, probably a million-seven or a million-eight”[4] indicating a death toll between 400,000 & 600,000 people.
Military Victory
Resistance Forces
I cover in American Victory how destruction & death does not equate to victory. I warned then of “COIN Math” in which if you kill one “bad-guy” you end up with 5 more because his friends & family pick up arms. Our own state department confirmed this predictable outcome stating that Hamas has recruited 10,000-15,000 new members since the start of the genocide [5]. Hamas was conducting effective operations against the IDF right up until the ceasefire took effect. Post ceasefire Hamas reestablished order, security & even had parades in the streets [6].
In June 2024, I wrote how israel was defeated in Double or Nothing, and it is worth revisiting. The facts on the ground remain largely unchanged. Hezbollah, while battered is not destroyed, remember the sheer volume of munitions they started with. They too were able to conduct effective operations right up until the ceasefire. Just as Hamas was able to recruit, I assume the continued post-ceasefire zionist aggression is helping Hezbollah recruit. I think the biggest challenge Hezbollah will face is supply chain through Syria, though I doubt this will be completely dismantled.
Iran is still formidable, I reviewed their capabilities in ‘A Wider War Iran’. We saw in their exchanges with Israel that they are VERY capable of striking deep into the zionist entity. I view the first attack, long foreshadowed as a soft warning to Israel, Israel’s response was to strike Iranian air defense site. Israel then further escalated leading to “True Promise 2” which hit Israel much harder. True Promise 2 included multiple direct impacts on the Nevatim Airbase & even at least one hit in Tel Aviv [7]. Israel’s response to this was muted, perhaps limited by Iran upgrading to Russian S400 systems [8].
Yemen was able to defy israel & America with continued strikes in the Red Sea & directly on Tel Aviv. The Red Sea combat was described as “the toughest [naval] fight since WW2”[9]. As mentioned in America’s Waning Power, our ‘exquisite systems’ are increasingly vulnerable to drone & missile attacks. Not only was Yemen simultaneously conducting these operations (without a Navy), they were also sending domestically produced Palestine-2 Hypersonic Missiles into Tel-Aviv[10].
Israel
Previously, Israel had claimed 844 soldiers were killes and 5,696 were wounded [11]. Eyal Zamir, incoming Chief of Staff, stated least 5,942 ‘bereaved families’” (a term for families who had a member killed in war). He additionally added that over 15,000 were injured [11][12]. I had written previously about the supply chain impact on Israel and how they had resorted to using munitions made in 1953 to continue operations. To say that the systems were stretched is an understatement.
America
There are 4 primary things to note with America.
As mentioned above, our platforms are increasingly vulnerable to attack, ESPECIALLY if this escalates into a hot war with America directly involved.
Americans are tired of war, Trump campaigned on and won as ‘the anti-war candidate’
The dollar is facing real challenges now from BRICS+, with Bitcoin seemingly taking a role.
Our war manufacturing cannot withstand the demands on it and we have depleted our stockpiles.
Now, this doesn’t mean America cannot ‘lean in’ to fight harder and more, it is just to point out that we would rapidly accelerate the end of our empire by doing so and risk the well being of America in the process. Another reminder, China is sitting back watching us make mistake after mistake. No American should want us involved at all, let alone directly putting boots on the ground.
Trump and his ‘plans’
Trump has done some good, a few days before his inauguration, he was able to secure a ceasefire through his envoy, something Biden couldn’t or wouldn’t do for 15 months. Wickoff and the stories coming out were promising. Trumps appointment to Deputy Minister of Defense (middle east) Michael Dimino is a legitimate America first (as in not wanting to send us to die for Israel) American that has the zionists ‘worried’[13].
Ethnic Cleansing
"The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too. We'll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out, create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for people of the area." — Donald Trump
“The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting” — Donald Trump
The basis for Trump’s plan seems to completely ignore the reality on the ground in Gaza and the larger Middle East. Israel does not ‘own’ the Gaza strip, it is not in a position to force Palestinians out and by accepting a ceasefire, that Hamas is adhering to, it has lost the ability to claim that it ‘must continue’ killing.
Trump has been floating around the idea of ‘moving Palestinians out’ of their land, he frames it as ‘humanitarian’ though its very clearly to serve Israel. He completely ignores any possibility of Palestinians refusing (as they have for 75+ years). While vague each time he mentioned this ‘plan’ it garnered immediate responses from our Arab ‘allies’ in the region refusing it entirely. The previous mentions resulted in strong opposition from Egypt & Jordan[14] , the leaders of both nations recognize that even they have limits to the corruption they can openly get away with.
On February 4th, after meeting with Netanyahu, Trump came out with a more detailed plan (the quote above). Despite it being ~4AM in Riyadh they firmly rejected any talk of diplomatic relations with Israel unless “an independent Palestinian state is established, with East Jerusalem as its capital”[15].
There are two possibilities that I see. First (and the one I’m hoping for), this is merely an absurd stance designed to elicit a strong response from Arab states who step in and say ‘no no, we will give [tons] of resources to get it done’ . The second option is that this is something he thinks is actually feasible. In addition to betraying America to get it done, we would ultimately fail at great expense of lives, liberty & property. He and those he blindly follows fail to recognize that Israel failed in removing Hamas and their entire country is a few miles away.
Trump openly calling for the violation of US & international law is not good for him (as he opens himself to another impeachment). If a negotiation tactic, it has already garnered a lot of strong talk from countries around the world [16], perhaps opening the door for “then you fix it”, though at the same time costing us political capital. If it is a ‘serious’ proposal, it will fail and the mere attempt will cause irreparable harm to the United States.
Lunacy & Solutions
American Occupation!
“If military action is necessary, the United States and our allies will help the Iraqi people rebuild their economy, and create the institutions of liberty in a unified Iraq at peace with its neighbors” — George W. Bush, [making the case to invade Iraq] [17]
While many delusional neocons are excited about adding a new forever war, some people that I are generally on the ‘right’ side of things seem to have lost sight of the plot. Ian Carroll , suggested that this is a way to ‘counter Israel’ which I find plausible in the form of a negotiation tactic but absurd if the intent was to actually put boots on the ground (or help enforce ethnic cleansing etc). The tweet below borders on madness. When have the American people benefited from our forever wars? Ian is using talking points from our Iraq invasion like it is a ‘great idea’. While expected from some, it is disappointing from him.
We would not be ‘saviors’ just as we were not ‘saviors’ in Iraq. We would not benefit, just as we did not benefit from our other wars for israel. If you are ‘America First’ then you are not sacrificing American live liberty or property for ANY other nation. As I detail in American Victory, our military objectives must be SMART (Specific, Measurable, ACHIEVABLE, Relevant, Time-Bound), and they must serve Americans. This is not SMART and does not serve Americans.
The solution
The ‘solution’ has always been there and it is accepted by almost ALL nations except America & Israel (even Hamas accepts it), it is a 2 state solution based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the Capital of Palestine. I cover the previous false ‘efforts’ in Zionism, an Obstacle to Peace. If the world, including America accepts this obvious solution the hate will fade and peace will be the result. If we choose ethnic cleansing, forever wars, apartheid and genocide, then obviously the violence will continue (in Palestine & destabilizing the rest of the world).
Real Sovereignty
The apartheid state committing a genocide does not get to dictate to those resisting who ‘gets to be in power’. If the Palestinians choose Hamas, then that is their choice. Remember in 2006, Hamas won 44% of the vote but Palestinians overwhelmingly (83.7%) wanted peace with Israel. The vote for Hamas was a vote against corruption, not a vote to ‘destroy israel’. Give people liberty & peace will follow.
Military
Real sovereignty means that the people of Palestine maintain their right to self defense and a military to ensure their sovereignty lasts. We see the alternative to this in the West Bank where zionists gangs roam freely committing pogroms against helpless Palestinians.
End the Blockade
The blockade of Gaza must end. The state of Palestine must be free to construct and maintain docks/piers & an airport (like the one Israel previously destroyed [18]) in order to trade & build its economy. The naval blockade must also be lifted & access to all resources including the offshore oil/gas & access to fishing areas without fear of being murdered.
End the West Bank Ghettos
While this should be a given with the borders described above, I want to be clear to those easily confused. As a sovereign nation, any presence of Israelis or zionist “settlers” in the west bank are illegal and must be removed. The layer upon layer of fragmentation implemented and expanded after Oslo must be removed.
Maintaining Peace
Again the Palestinian people want peace, they have wanted it for decades now. Give them sovereignty & hope for the future and the violence will fade. Ensure that no ‘mowing the grass’ is allowed. Through economic & diplomatic pressure ensure that all sides are peaceful. It may be hard to stomach for some, but assist whoever is in charge of the government of Palestine in keeping the peace as was outlined in previous agreements that were cut short by israel committing assassinations.
I believe international troops in Palestine will cause trouble. If Israel feels ‘too threatened’ then allow international troops on the ‘israel side’ of the wall. International workers/volunteers will likely be welcome and be a force for peace on both sides.
Rebuilding
We know the people of Palestine do not want to move out of Gaza and it is illegal to force them to. The only acceptable place for them to be asked to move would be within the pre-1948 boundaries of Palestine (but I doubt Israel would accept this offer). Reconstructing Gaza does not require depopulating it, instead, create ‘work zones’, no barriers no ghettos, but a coordinated plan led by the Palestinian government to work designated sections at a time.
I believe the first steps would focus around transportation of wreckage & building materials. This would likely mean building and expanding the port in Gaza city as well as clearing way for roads. An agreement for waste management with Egypt (utilizing the Sinai to process it) would likely be the most economical.
Previously there were ~334,000 housing units [19] (remember ~92% have been destroyed). Let’s assume, the population of Gaza is now 2 million people (taking a middle estimate of the total murdered by Israel). The average household size in Gaza was 5.7 in 2022 [19]. That means there needs to be a total of lets say, 360,000 housing units (there was a shortage before & this adds some buffer).
The first step might be the ‘low hanging fruit’ of mostly clear places and something like barracks housing, as an upgrade from tents to provide shelter. For the next part, I asked Chat-GPT about the dimensions of the 'most economical multi family building’ (I am not an engineer & my construction career ended after highschool). I think the construction type should be uniform, its boring, its probably not ‘beautiful’ but it would work & it would allow those building it to develop expertise as time goes on and they build essentially the same building over and over again.
Say 20% of the land is roads & infrastructure, that leaves 111 sq mi for buildings, at 10,000 sq ft footprint each, that is 310,000 buildings, which would be ~3+ times as many housing units as needed. The point here being there is sufficient space to rebuild. The next assessment would be if there is open & usable land to begin permanent housing construction. If so, great start building! If not a coordinated system of debris removal & construction must be implemented.
To ensure peace & avoid resentment, the area should be divided by random collection of adjacent blocks (the number depending on the available resources). These would then be further subdivided based on the amount of area to accommodate the appropriate number of ‘10,000 sq ft’ footprint buildings. Each section could be cleared then built, probably working away from and then towards the nearest major roadway. This provides a few things. Community, as people literally work together to rebuild their homes. Ownership/responsibility, if working to rebuild what very well could be your own home, the odds of taking dangerous/cost saving “short cuts” diminishes. Importantly this allows a coordinated but not isolated rebuilding to take place, hopefully ensuring that all feel hope for the future and thus helping to avoid additional violence.
I realize this plan is rather simplistic, but it is functional and the point of it is to show that it CAN be done. There is no ‘need’ to move Palestinians, that plan is fueled by zionists desire to get the land they tried and failed to take. If you put actual experts who aren’t serving israel on this, I’m sure they could provide a more detailed & accurate plan.
Conclusion
Israel failed in its military objectives in Gaza and is trying now to cling to ‘victory’ through a doomed-to-fail plan that Trump hopefully proposed merely as a negotiation strategy. There is no mechanism to enact the proposed ethnic cleansing, and after the fallout from the initial announcement, Trump is now walking back any use of American troops, further emphasizing the question of ‘who is going to do it’.
The path forward has been the same for decades, a truly sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. The people of Gaza are resilient and survived 15 months of genocide & 75+ years of oppression. With sovereignty, no blockade & a newfound liberty providing hope for the future the Palestinians of Gaza can and will rebuild their homes.
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Resources
https://www.dezeen.com/2025/01/22/gaza-housing-92-per-cent-destroyed-damaged-un-report/
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02678-3/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02678-3/fulltext
https://www.newarab.com/news/israeli-new-army-chief-admits-gaza-losses-higher-reported
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021007-8.html
It's hard for me to understand how you can be this delusional.
The "apartheid state" has control of all resources that go into the strip, and might very well shut that down in the event of ethnic cleansing. Sure you could stay and "resist", but face actual starvation?
The genocide branding is perhaps mildly politically effective, but anyone who knows what artillery is knows Israel did nowhere near its capacity for brutality(meaning genocide wasn't the goal). While not everything is going in Israel's favor, none of your goals are realistic, and none of the harsh realities are going to change.
You never address the power dynamics or the incentives.
You speak of the future and lasting peace, but then paint a caricature that's even dumber than the most vapid forms of Zionist Hasbarah.