Gaza Ceasefire
News of an ‘imminent ceasefire’ in Gaza has been spreading. Initially I doubted the credibility of this claim due to the previous ‘rumors of a ceasefire’, however, US & israeli media have been echoing the same claim. US media has also begun to reveal some of the horrors faced by Palestinians (notably, 60 minutes published footage they sat on since May). To me, I see this as government corporate media ‘justifying’ the ceasefire to Americans who have been lied to by the same organizations for decades.
Again, this is not ‘in effect’ yet though I hope it will succeed. I wanted to cover some of the details in the ceasefire itself, how it is moving forward and what comes next.
The current toll in Gaza
A report by the Lancet states that the death toll reported by Gaza officials was 41% lower than reality. They estimate the actual death toll to be ~64,260 [1]. An earlier Lancet article estimates that 3-15 times more people will die from ‘indirect deaths’ due to the “war” [2]. This could bring the total between 192,000 & about 960,000 out of a population of ~2 million people.
As of March of last year, there were over 1,000 child amputees in Gaza thanks to the ongoing israeli bombardments [3], the number is certainly higher now. HRW reported in December 2024 on the use of water “as a weapon of war” by the israelis [4]. Palestinians are also facing starvation, another ‘weapon’ of israel, despite the US government attempts to silence any report of it [5]. Famine is not something that can be easily ‘turned off’ and will contribute to the total deaths estimated about.
Lasting health impacts, like those of the 9/11 responders still loom for those that survive the immediate challenges[6]. More will likely be exposed as they try to rebuild, a monumental task that will have people removing decaying human remains, debris and unexploded ordinance. In addition to the physical health, the mental trauma and anguish is almost beyond comprehension. Imagine the mental state of a child, knowing there are people that intentionally shoot children in the head [7]. Imagine them having seen it, perhaps they saw a sibling murdered, perhaps a parent saw their child killed.
Over 9,000 Palestinians are imprisoned by israel [8]. Again, this is nothing new for israel as I detailed here. The imprisonment, described as ‘Hell’ by B’tsalem (an Israeli human rights group) comes with torture and even death [9].
The Ceasefire Deal
This deal is highly similar to one proposed in May 2024 [10]. Netanyahu could have got the hostages back on 10/9/2023, he could have got them back in May 2024. He chose to continue slaughtering innocent people, even at the expense of his own people.
‘The Saviour' shared via X a more detailed breakdown. Similar details are now being reported on other sites. Importantly, the first phase includes steps to end the killing, suspending ground operations, pauses in air operations & significant increase in humanitarian aid.
What i saw conveniently left out by the western media is that this is a prisoner EXCHANGE. As mentioned, the israelis routinely hold Palestinian men, women & children as ‘prisoners’, often indistinguishable from hostages. Israel will release 30 Palestinians for each Israeli. For each israeli soldier , 50 Palestinians will be released. It is also reported that some of these people were in prison for life or other long-term sentences [11].
Phase 2 will be conditioned upon a ‘permanent ceasefire’ & full israeli withdrawal from Gaza (this is including the Philadelphi corridor, something I believe is crucial for Gaza). Phase 3 will include a reconstruction plan, an exchange of human remains and lifting the decades long blockade of Gaza. Again, this is all essentially the previous deal that Hamas had accepted & was rejected by Netanyahu in May of 2024.
Resistance
I wrote on the right to resist in ‘Give Me Liberty’. It is worth noting the resilience of the forces on the ground in Gaza & others that fought against the zionists. Yemen continues to drive the point home that zionists will not have peace until Palestinians do [12]. I think this ceasefire deal and the timeline provides some perspective on why the Hezbollah ‘ceasefire’ is holding despite repeated violations by the zionists. Make no mistake, without the resistance to israeli aggression, this deal would be no where near as favorable for Palestinians. If you doubt it, look at Ben Gvir & zionist twitter right now having a meltdown.
Genocide Joe
I think it is worth mentioning again, this was NEVER about the hostages. I think Netanyahu saw in Biden either a man too incompetent to do the right thing, or an administration run entirely by an agent of israel (maybe Biden, but likely whoever actually was running things). Without the blank check support of Biden et al this war had NO way of continuing. Supporting genocide was never in American interests. Strategically, given our dwindling resources (America’s Waning Power & A Wider War: Supply Chain & Restraint) and weakening global standing, America needed this to end. The ease with which the US could have ended this is a dark stain on Biden, Harris, Blinken and the others. I hope their complicity in this genocide forever haunts them.
Trump for Peace
I wrote my thoughts on Election Day back in November. I thought maybe punishing Kamala was the ‘best we could do’. The news I am seeing today caught me by surprise.
The Jerusalem Post, is repeating claims of Al Araby that Netanyahu’s stance changed because of Trump’s promise of ‘hell to pay’ if no deal is reached [13]. Haraatz has now published details of how Trump “Forced Netanyahu to accept a Gaza plan he repeatedly rejected” [14]. They describe Trump’s Middle East Envoy is an aggressive businesman that went to make a deal. It is telling that they were ‘shocked’ that he behaved as if the US is the one in control, not Netanyahu. It will be interesting to learn more as this continues to develop, especially as Netanyahu risks losing support of the even more radical elements in his government. Ben Gvir is now openly admitting how he sabotaged peace efforts & stating he will end the coalition government in protest of this deal [15].
Closing
While we don’t yet have peace, I am hopeful. The narrative shift coming from the corporate media gives me some hope. What Trump & others have said gives me some hope. We have to keep the pressue on to ensure it ‘crosses the finish line’.
As I mentioned above, the dying will not stop when the bombs stop. We need to ensure that as much aid as possible can reach those in need once the ‘gates’ are opened. Organizations like PCRF & Heal Palestine are great organizations to support this cause. In addition to healing, we need to ensure those that committed this evil face justice. The Hind Rajab Foundation has been doing amazing work, ensuring that the genociders have no peace abroad by seeking their arrest under international law.
Americans need to reclaim their sovereignty & actually put America first, that means NO MORE fighting israel’s wars (directly or indirectly). The effort to expose dual citizens & foreign agents, led (at least in government) by Representative Thomas Massie is now being picked up by General Flynn & Vivek Ramaswamy. Even Trump has shared a video of Jeffrey Sachs on ‘truth’ that labeled Netanyahu a “Dark son of a bitch”. We have to continue exposing the corruption & treason to ensure peace actually has a chance.
For true lasting peace, at a minimum, the world must recognize Palestine along its 1967 borders. Despite the unfairness of this theft by the Zionists, the majority of Palestinians (including Hamas) have long accepted these borders as the basis for the state of Palestine. If this ceasefire takes hold, do not abandon the Palestinian people. Continue speaking out, continue writing your representatives, do not allow this to be merely a 'temporary pause' that lasts only until the evils of zionist tyranny force more violence.
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Resources
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02678-3/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02678-3/fulltext
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-children-who-lost-limbs-in-gaza
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/gaza-rubble-exposure-health-crisis/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/02/gaza-palestinian-children-killed-idf-israel-war
Good to know. Thank you. We need to be ready for a higher death toll.