Double or Nothing
The Defeat of Israel & what is next
“Hamas is an idea. Anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong," —IDF Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari
The IDF went into Gaza with the stated goal of ‘destroying Hamas’, now they admit what I have been saying for months (here & here), they cannot win. The hubris of the israelis led them on this path of slaughter & destruction. Rather than seek peace in the face of defeat, zionists clamor for another war, this one with Hezbollah.
Current Assessments
IDF
Force size
The IDF chief of staff is claiming he is needs an additional division (4,500 troops) to ‘fulfill its missions’ [1]. In previous articles, using the battle of Mosul as a model, we see zionists would need 320,000 - 1.3 million combat troops to take and hold Gaza as well as a significant amount of time. Remember, this is COMBAT troops not total force.
Conscripts, fight like conscripts
The IDF was once touted as an ‘elite fighting force’ and even I believed it. I thought that despite being conscripts they fought on par with America’s professional, all volunteer force. I was wrong, very wrong. They fight like we see conscripts fight all over the world.
The frequent & abundant self-reported images and videos of war crimes by the IDF is itself an indicator of their lack of discipline. We see videos of bodies being mutilated, women’s undergarments being worn, cripples being mocked. All variety of depravity is on display and showed to the world by the IDF. Additionally the IDF is reported to be ‘exhausted by 8 months of fighting’ [2]
While on its surface, the frequent ambushes against israeli armor seem bad enough, the reality reflects something much worse. We see in the below US army manual that infantry is key to ‘combined arms’. Tanks are not meant to operate alone in urban environments. Despite this we see video after video of tanks (and other armor) alone & exposed. It seems that the IDF officer corps (as I assume they at least know this) does not have the ability to control their men & conduct operations as required.
This breakdown in command and control can have catastrophic consequences that reach beyond the mounting casualties we see ongoing today. The quote below gives an idea of how difficult it is becoming for the IDF to field troops. With low discipline, minimal control and mounting exhaustion, just how long can the IDF continue to fight? Yet we see politicians & other lunatics pushing for a war with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah
I wrote in “A Wider War: Hezbollah” that Netanyahu saw a war with Hezbollah as a way to lure in the Americans and cling to power. I also detailed how Hezbollah could inflict HUGE amounts of damage with their ~160,000 rockets & missiles, this was with a seemingly overly optimistic (for the israelis) 80% interception rate. Foreign Policy is now reporting that Hezbollah has over 1 million rockets & missiles[6]. A million just further illustrates the destructive force Hezbollah can bring to bear.
Strike capabilities
Hezbollah has been targeting various systems throughout northern israel for months. A spy balloon here, a radar tower there, they even showed how they hit an iron dome system. All of this has been clearing the path for deep penetration into zionist held land. Hezbollah recently published a drone captured video of residential areas outside of Haifa, the Haifa port, chemical containers and other strategic locations near Haifa. Additionally, this drone flew over 4 different anti-air batteries without being intercepted[7]. The HudHud is not a small drone, it has a 2 meter wingspan and it can be armed with up to 4 missiles [8].
The port in Haifa sees over 29 million tons of cargo per year and is the largest port for israel. It is also the primary naval base for the zionist forces. The city of Haifa has a population of ~280,000. while the ‘haifa district’ has a population near 1 million. Looking back at “A Wider War: Hezbollah” this area is within reach of ‘medium range’ weaponry.
Shaul Goldsten, who heads the company that manages Israel’s electric grid, stated that Hezbollah could target their power and make israel “uninhabitable” after 72 hours[9]. Hezbollah, made this abundantly clear by following up with another video that listed out potential targets in the event of an attack on Lebanon. The Hadera power station is the largest power producer in israel and is run on imported coal. Many of these potential targets were analyzed in “A Wider War: Hezbollah”, in short, Hezbollah is very capable of destroying them.
What is Next
Hezbollah
Hezbollah has thus far shown great strategic patience in this conflict. Their exchanges with the zionists have been against military targets and have been seemingly limited in range . By showing restraint and patience Hezbollah is giving time for israel to further alienate itself. Had Hezbollah responded on 10/8 in full force, the US and others would likely respond with full commitment. Now that the world has been allowed to see what zionism truly is, the appetite to help israel (at least by the people) in most countries is very low or non-existent. As israel openly commits more and more war crimes, Hezbollah is likely to face less & less outside interference.
I believe that Hezbollah will continue to show patience. I don’t see the balance of power shifting in favor of israel as time goes on. Hezbollah will likely continue to make strikes that ‘soften’ israel’s defenses so that in the event of escalation, they can have more devastating effect. We also saw in the Iran-Israel tit-for-tat that Russia encouraged Iranian restraint, I assume that this would extend to encouraged restraint from Hezbollah as well.
American Involvement
When I wrote ‘A Wider War: Hezbollah’ I theorized that expanding the conflict might be seen as a way to lure in the Americans. As we contemplate American involvement in another foreign war, it is important to remember recent history as well. We lost in Iraq, maybe not catastrophically, but our interests aren’t ‘better off’ since our invasion. We were completely embarrassed in Afghanistan, our withdrawal looked like a rout & the Taliban ended up with an air force. We are ineffective in Yemen. Perhaps most importantly, we are losing in Ukraine. Looking at the whole picture, including the points captured in “America’s Waning Power”, the United States seems unprepared and uninterested in another conflict.
As described in that article, America already (back in January and earlier) had supply shortages. Our manufacturing cannot keep up with the demand that our war in Ukraine placed on us, adding israel’s munition hungry genocide didn’t help. I wouldn’t expect much from NATO countries as their focus is on the dangerously close war with Russia. Further evidence that the US has no interest in an expanding war is provided by how the US worked to de-escalate the tit-for-tat with Iran & how the US is pushing israel (however timidly) for a ceasefire in Gaza.
I do not think there is ANY appetite in the United States to send in troops to support this war. While the majority of Americans (55%) believe the US should play a role in ending the “Israel-Hamas war”, only 20% believe it should have a major role, 35% believe it should have a minor role & 27% want the US to play ‘no role at all’ [11]. If a wider war were to break out I believe the US would try to aid israel while also trying to keep it small enough that most Americans don’t even notice we are at war.
Israel
Israel is the hardest actor to judge because I do not believe they are rationally acting in their own best interests. I detailed in “American Victory” how they sacrificed ‘small victory’ in favor of ‘large defeat’. I do not believe that the majority of israelis understand the risk they truly face. Many still believe the rhetoric of their state propaganda agencies. Even those that caution against war largely overestimate Israel’s capabilities. This article states at 3,000 launches a day ‘at least some’ of the Iron dome will be overwhelmed. Meanwhile, we already saw how a single one-way drone can penetrate israeli defenses and strike iron dome batteries.
The result? 62% of Jewish israelis favor an attack on Hezbollah[12].
Destruction is not victory
In American Victory I show that destruction does not equate to victory. Israel can likely inflict a huge amount of damage on Lebanon but that doesn’t mean they will ‘win’. We see today, with much of Gaza destroyed, Hamas can STILL launch rockets into israel. Hezbollah’s wider range of weapons and larger theater of operations means that israel would be unable to destroy their launch capabilities. If we look back at the 2006 war, we get an even clearer picture. That war is largely described as a loss for israel [13]. At the start of that war, Hezbollah reportedly had a mere 13,000 rockets & missiles[14]. Now they have hundreds of thousands, including advanced missiles & drones capable of precision strikes. Despite this, we are expected to believe israel can achieve ‘its mission’ in Lebanon.
Survivability
"From my perspective, I think it's going to be a war that Israel will lose within the first 24 hours…simply because of the pictures we will see of mass destruction in very sensitive areas within Israel on a scale we've never seen before." Eran Etzion former deputy head of israel’s national security council
If the image of invulnerability is shattered, can israel survive as it is today? I think no. We see that 40% of those who have been evacuated from the north are unlikely to return [15] . What will happen if the Haifa port and other locations that Hezbollah has shown it can hit are destroyed? What will happen if 500kg bombs go off in Tel-Aviv? This is not the 5-10kg homemade rockets of Hamas, but professionally constructed weapons of a modern military. Will zionists around the world still believe ‘israel is the only safe space for Jews’ or will they stay in Brooklyn? In 2022, there were 7 million Jews living in Israel, 79% (5.5 million) of them were reportedly born there [15], if they were born to parents with dual citizenship, they likely have it or are eligible for it as well. How many parents would stay there if it meant greater risk to their children?
Nuclear weapons
Many zionists will point to israel’s nuclear capabilities as the ‘winning hand’ in this conflict. Again, destruction does not mean victory. Were Israel to utilize nuclear weapons, they may destroy Lebanon, but they would also irradiate themselves and their northern ‘bread basket’. The political repercussions would be catastrophic. I don’t think that the use of nuclear weapons would ‘save’ the zionist state, it would just be another route to their own destruction.
Conclusion
Hezbollah has shown it can strike successfully against Israel. The United States has signaled that it is not interested in a wider war (though it likely will allow itself to be dragged into one). Israel has shown it is incapable of securing its airspace & it is incapable of ‘achieving victory’ in Gaza, adding a Hezbollah front would be disastrous.
The best thing for israel is to move towards lasting peace and stability. This means no occupation and a 1967-border-based 2 state solution. Unfortunately, I think it is unlikely Israel will do this on its own. I believe that their leaders know the truth of their capabilities & the limited impact they can have against Hezbollah. They are gambling on the basis that a war with Hezbollah may ‘buy them some time’. In reality, a war with Hezbollah would hasten their demise.
Note: Benny Gantz is in America trying to lure us further into their war. He has recently lied stating “we can bring Lebanon completely into the dark, and take apart Hezbollah’s power in days”.
If you are an American reading this, know that your politicians are risking more American lives & capital on behalf of a losing fight. Read or re-read American Victory to get a sense of why we should push for peace, primarily by refusing to be involved. The longer we stay on the warpath the worse the outcome will be.