Cease...fire

Dec 04, 2024

Hezbollah & the zionists have agreed to a ceasefire and there are ongoing, supposedly hopeful, talks regarding a ceasefire in Gaza. Despite the agreement, israel has continued aggressive actions in Lebanon that threaten to re-escalate the conflict. This is occurring amidst the backdrop of an incoming Trump administration which has promised ‘no new wars’ and ‘to end wars’ while simultaneously threatening to escalate ongoing wars. This article will provide some context to the current situation.

Hezbollah-zionist Ceasefire

The terms of the ceasefire give Israel 60 days to withdraw from Southern Lebanon and they give Hezbollah forces the same time frame to move north of the Litani river [1]. I think it is important to note that this 60 day timeframe puts the deadline at 1/26/2025, 6 days after Trump’s inauguration. The Litani river was also the geographic line designated after the 2006 war by UNSC Resolution 1701[2]. From the zionist perspective, Hezbollah being pushed north of the Litani river would significantly limit the usability of their short-range munitions. The “goal” here is to have both confronting forces (IDF & Hezbollah) withdraw from the area and the Lebanese military take over security, essentially acting as a layer of insulation between the two. The feasibility of this plan is questionable given the Lebanese Army’s 73,000 man troop strength [3], the extensive capabilities of Hezbollah & the bomb everything that moves tactics of the zionists.

Litani river to ‘israel’ Border, Google Maps

Adding doubt to this ceasefire is the ongoing aggressive actions of the zionists, again acting as an obstacle to peace. Despite the “ceasefire” israel has repeatedly and continuously struck inside Lebanon. Even “American” special envoy Hochstein has chastised israel for its repeated violations of the terms of the ceasefire agreement [5]. By December 1st, France had already cited 52 israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement [6]. Netanyahu has not shied away from this aggressive behavior, stating “We are enforcing this ceasefire with an iron fist,” [7]. The zionist defense minister took it even further threatening the (currently) ‘neutral’ state of Lebanon by saying “If we return to war we will act strongly, we will go deeper, and the most important thing they need to know: that there will be no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon”.

On December 2nd, Hezbollah “retaliated” by firing two rockets into land that israel is still occupying in Lebanon (no one was harmed) [8]. I have significant doubts that this is going to hold if the zionists continue to breach the agreement, especially if they continue their genocide in Gaza. The level of aggression displayed while claiming to ‘be in a ceasefire’ is absurd, even by our own corrupt government’s standards.

The reality on the ground I believe is unchanged. While zionists still have massive air superiority, they can achieve very little with their conscript laden ground forces. I think that the reality of our supply chain concerns & China’s recent posturing made the need for peace here more ‘real’ to Western nations.

Rumors of a Gaza-Ceasefire

Reportedly, Hamas & Fateh (the mostly useless group ruling the West Bank) are near an agreement to hand over control of Gaza to a 12-15 member committee comprised of “independent” people “mostly from Gaza” [9]. Details are pretty hard to come by at this stage and nothing has been solidified. The first questions that comes to mind are in regards to border control (with Egypt primarily & the absurd Sea restrictions).

Trump recently threatened ‘the middle east’ (more civilians) with “Hell to pay” if the hostages aren’t released by his inauguration (1/20/2025). Hamas responded by pointing out the fact that Netanyahu is the one preventing a peace agreement [10]. Even israelis acknowledge this as true [11] and it is made even more obvious by the continued escalations, assassinations & violence perpetrated by israel. While peace is in the best interest of Israel, it is not in the best interest of Netanyahu, who would face prosecution in israel on unrelated charges and whose ability to leave israel is severely hampered by ICC arrest warrants.

Conclusion

I believe Hezbollah’s acceptance of a “ceasefire” was a ‘show of good will’ to facilitate peace in Gaza (given that the news of the Hamas talks came shortly after). I think the primary reason the ‘ceasefire’ with Hezbollah is holding is the potential success of the Gaza ceasefire talks. While some are alarmed by Trump’s rhetoric, I question what more we can do that is worse than full-on supporting a genocide for 14+ months. Again, due to supply constraints & global realities, I do not think the US can expand the war without disastrous results. With politics in mind, I think perhaps Trump is adding rhetoric in recognition that peace is actually possible & he wants to lay claim to it (saying his ‘tough talk’ forced peace etc).

Achieving a ceasefire is only the first step and that has yet to be done. The next steps will be holding those responsible for committing genocide accountable, while rapidly moving towards a two-state solution with a real & viable Palestinian state.

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